Saturday, September 12, 2009 EST

One of MTR members (riskless1) requested a new feature that would forecast a Market Up or Market Down signal in advance. This would allow a one day advanced notice of the market timing signal change. The feature is now live on MTR but is in a Beta release since it needs to be monitored for a week or two.

Overview: The MTR Stock Market Timing Model (MTR-TM) fires Market Up or Market Down signals using proprietary logic based on closing prices of the Value Line Arithmetic Index (VLAI). Forecasting a change in the current signal can only be done one day in advance due to all the logic that is built into the MTR-TM.

Example: As of this post the last market call was Market Up on 7/16/2009. The system at the close of each day will start reducing the MTR-TM by one dollar attempting to fire a Market Down signal. If a market down signal was fired the MTR-TM page would show the next day closing price for the new signal (if no signal was fired, the index is reduced again by $1.00 until a signal is fired). This process continues in a loop until either a signal was fired, or it was determined that other criteria must be met, and therefor the next day will not fire a changed signal.

Members can check the MTR-TM intraday price on the forecasted trading day. If the forecasted price is touched then trade according to the new signal. One caution: MTR-TM is based on closing prices of the VLAI since it is commonly thought that the "pros" influence the closing price of the market. If you trade the signal intra-day but at the close the MTR-TM does not reach that price, no signal will be fired.

The example below shows that no Market Down signal is forecasted for the next day.

If a forecasted Market Down signal was fired the message would have read:

Signal Forecast (BETA): If the MTR-TM closes at or below 994.25 on the next trading day a Market Down signal will be fired.

If you would like to discuss the feature further please follow this link to the forum thread regarding this feature.

 
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