Sunday, May 17, 2009 EST

The Economic Model (MTR-EM) was updated with data for April 2009.

All percentages are Year over Year changes (April 2009 vs. April 2008)

  • Real-Wages (gray line): + 4.48%
  • Real-Wages All Employed (green line) : -.44%
  • Employment: -4.71%
  • S&P 500 (purple line): -37% 

Interpretation: Real-Wages increased by 4.48% reflects the drop in CPI and fuel. Real-Wages for all employed workers is down -44%. This reflects the continuing drop in year over year employment which down -4.71%. The increase in real-wages is positive for the market since employed workers have more money in their pockets than last year. This is offset by the continued decrease in employment. This again is another reflection of the weight on consumer spending. Consumer spending continuing to be impacted will show up in lower corporate earnings. The MTR-EM is a mid term model and can be used as an indicator of how to investment when the Market Timing Model (MTR-TM) issues a market up or market down call.

The chart below can be customized on the Economic Model page.

 
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