Wednesday, May 6, 2009 EST

Then unemployment percent does not give a full picture of the of what it means today compared to last year at this time.

Unemployed workers (for over 3 weeks) has increased by 133% since the same period year over year. (March 2009 vs. March 2008).

The ten year chart below really provides a detailed picture of unemployment trends compared year over year.

Looking back future the unemployment picture today has not been this bad since the mid 1970's.

Now lets look at all unemployed (March 2009 vs. March 2008) compared year over year the same period there is over a 60% increase.

The current 8.5% national unemployment rate can be put into better perspective as to the impact on people today compared to the same time last year.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator but it seems at such extremes the recovery in the job market has a long haul ahead.

Saturday, April 11, 2009 EST
Brian Wesbury posts stock market and economic commentaries with very good and timely insights. I have traded many of the First Trust ETFs over the past year. I really like their product select and how they go about selecting stocks to include in various ETFs.

Recently I watched a Wesbury 101 Video (see below) regarding Mr. Wesbury's insight into the market. Brian Wesbury called the current rally early on and it was about the same time the MTR-TM fired a buy signal.

Recently Brian Wesbury posted an article titled "Easy Money will end the recession." I read the email and replied that "easy money has been around since late 2008 when the DOW went from 10,000 down to 6,500." I was pleasantly surprised when Mr. Wesbury responded to my email with more details. This really shows the personal commitment Mr. Wesbury has for the markets and people that follow his market commentaries.

Here is what he had to say:

You are correct, and we did.  However, a drop in velocity during the period after September 2008 offset any easy money.  Prior to September, the non-housing economy was actually accelerating.  But, once Lehman failed and TARP was proposed and Bush went on TV and panicked everyone the velocity of money collapsed.  That’s when the recession began.  Now, velocity is stabilizing or maybe picking up and easy money will work again.

I suppose you could say that we will have another panic.  But that is a forecast that has nothing to do with easy money today.

All best,
Brian

[youtube:n-qWUgLLVk8]

 
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