Thursday, October 12, 2017 EST

Recently the topic came up in some discussions around Income Investing with Options and other Income type investments.  In that discussion some friends were discussing "safe" investments for retirement where you could park your cash and now worry about large drawn downs (well they said losing money) and you could watch your investments grow.

We revisited the idea of investing in (one or more Bond Funds). Yes we know the arguments "Invest in Bonds not Funds because Bonds Mature."  That is fine but investing in individual Bonds takes work and you must be diversified.

What people find amazing is that a Bond Fund can actually have Higher Returns over the long run over Stocks (investing in an Index like SPY or a Stock Fund).  How would you like to get Stock Market returns with little downside fluctuation, put your money to work, let it grow, and just go live your life?  For those of us that are more daring we trade options and stocks. This post is about retirement and just letting things ride.

I. What kind of "Ride" to you want for your investments? Bumpy or Smooth?

Notice the return of the Bond Fund (TGMNX) vs. the stock market (SPY).  What you will notice is that the Bond Fund had a greater return, and none of the downside drops that cause people to panic and sell at the wrong time.

Where are more detailed returns for that same time period.

Bond Fund:

  • Avg Return 6.34%
  • Worst Year + 0.72%
  • Max Drawn Down 3.33%

Stock Market:

  • Avg Return 5.02%
  • Worst Year - 36.8%
  • Max Draw Down -50.8%

 

Saturday, July 29, 2017 EST

This post looks at allocating money into one mutual fund that focuses on Bonds and Income. This is meant for someone that wants a simple solution (and no fees) to invest your money.

If you are looking at protecting your capital and do not want any risk, CD Ladders are a good idea. If you are willing to take limited yearly risk (and you do not want the risk of stocks or the stock market) you can look at investing in one or more bond mutual funds. 

Overview:  This model can look back many years, but let's look at a 10.5 year period where the initial investment was $20,000 in 2007.  As of July 2017 it would be valued at $31,429 or a return of 4.6% a year.

Investment:  

  • Mutual Fund: Lord Abbett Investment Trust Short Duration (LALDX)
  • Holdings: Corporate and Government Bonds (low duration / years) limited risk
  • How to Buy: Purchase through Fidelity Investments as a No-Load Mutual Fund (no fees to buy or sell)
  • Alternatives: There are many Fidelity Funds (and other funds) that can be purchased. Lord Abbett was chosen because it is Low Duration Bond Fund (meaning it invests in short term bonds which have less interest rate risk).

Returns: 

  • $20,000 Invested
  • $31,429 after 10.5 years
  • Compounded Avg Yearly Return: 4.6%
  • Best Year: +16.96%
  • Worst Year: -1.09%
  • Worst Downside Fluctuation: -7% 

Growth of the Portfolio over 10 years

Yearly Returns

You may look at the chart above and think "Well 18% return in 2009, what would this look like over the longer haul?"

The chart below is results of this fund investing $20,000 in 1994. Here are the results.

  • $20,000 Invested
  • $53,352 after 25 years
  • Compounded Avg Yearly Return: 4.2%
  • Best Year: +16.96%
  • Worst Year: -3.5%
  • Worst Downside Fluctuation: -7% 

If you want to review more details of portfolios with one or more bond funds and compared to the S&P 500 click here for that blog post.

 These model were built using Portfolio Visualizer

 

Friday, July 28, 2017 EST

This post looks at investing in Bond Funds vs. the Stock Market. 

This is an approach you can accomplish with No Fees, No Financial Adviser, and have access to your money at anytime.

For investors that invest in bonds (not bond funds) they will argue that you should put your money in bonds because bonds mature and bond funds do not. This means if you buy a bond and it sinks in value (as long as it is good quality) the bond will mature and you will get all of your principal back plus the interest earned.   This is very true, but when it comes to 401K Investing you are limited to of course the funds in your 401K.

Setup: Looking at 3 portfolios using Vanguard Bond Funds and SPY.  (one bond fund, two bond funds, and the S&P 500) we will examine returns.

What we see over the long haul is what are are familiar with, that is, the Stock Market has the highest return.  But when you look under the covers what you see are gut-wrenching downturns, and measures that look at investment risk / reward the stock market has a worst risk / return ratio than simple buy and hold bond funds. 

Some items to look closely at: 

  • Sharpe Ratio: The Sharpe Ratio is a measure for calculating risk-adjusted return, and this ratio has become the industry standard for such calculations. Greater than 1 is considered acceptable to good. A ratio higher than 2 is rated as very good, and a ratio of 3 or higher is considered excellent.  - You will not see the S&P 500 reach a level of "good" over the long haul. Which means the risk / return is not all that great. 
  • CAGR: The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is the mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year.

Here are the 3 portfolios we back-tested using Portfolio Visualizer.  

Date: January 1995 - June 2017 - starting with $10,000

I. One Bond Fund:  VBMFX - Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund

  • Return: $33,600
  • Sharpe: 0.89
  • CAGR: 5.4%
  • Best Year: 18.19%
  • Worst Year: -2.25%
  • Max Drawndown: -4%
  • US Market Correlation: -0.03

II. Two Bond Funds: VBMFX - Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund &  VBLTX - Vanguard Long-Term Bond Index Fund

  • Return: $43,660
  • Sharpe: 0.72
  • CAGR: 6.7%
  • Best Year: 23.9%
  • Worst Year: -5.69%
  • Max Drawndown: -7.9%
  • US Market Correlation: -0.03

III. Stock Market: SPY (S&P 500)

  • Return: $79,853
  • Sharpe: 0.55
  • CAGR: 9.67%
  • Best Year: 38%
  • Worst Year: -36.81%
  • Max Drawndown: -50.80%
  • US Market Correlation: 0.99

When looking at pure returns anyone would take $79,000 vs. $40,000 on a $10,000 investment over 22 years. The point here is knowing the risk you can handle.

Meaning if you saw the stock market drop 30% or a drawn down of 50% of your investment money, what would you do?  

It is all about knowing the risk you can handle and still sleep well at night. If you look at the bond fund investments the max drawn down is -8% vs. -51% for the stock market. If you go with just a Total Bond Market Fund the max drawn down is -4% vs. -51% for the stock market.

You could of course setup a 60/40 or 40/60 allocation to stocks and bonds (or bond funds) but would still have to handle some gyration. Market timing is an option but even as we see with our SMS Model it is never 100%.

Summary of Portfolios: 

 

 
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