Tuesday, April 10, 2018 EST

The Stock Market Scout Timing Model performed well in the last year. The model has entered a Down / Hold type pattern over the last few months. Stock Market Timing is a "best guess" dependent upon many underlying parameters. 

Friday, March 9, 2018 EST

Using our Stock Miner feature to build a list of candidate trades we looked for the following.

  1. Stocks that returned at least 5% historically for the week.
  2. Stocks that positive returns for the week at least 80% of the time.
  3. Commodity ETFs that have a positive return at least 60% of the time, and positive return for the entire month (historically)

The two positions we traded last week were CVRR and OIL ETN.

We closed CVRR for a 13% gain. We are still holding OIL with a gain of 3.8%

Listed below are the results of the screener and some historical stats on these trades.

Here is a screen shot of the screen results for last week.

Thursday, October 12, 2017 EST

Recently the topic came up in some discussions around Income Investing with Options and other Income type investments.  In that discussion some friends were discussing "safe" investments for retirement where you could park your cash and now worry about large drawn downs (well they said losing money) and you could watch your investments grow.

We revisited the idea of investing in (one or more Bond Funds). Yes we know the arguments "Invest in Bonds not Funds because Bonds Mature."  That is fine but investing in individual Bonds takes work and you must be diversified.

What people find amazing is that a Bond Fund can actually have Higher Returns over the long run over Stocks (investing in an Index like SPY or a Stock Fund).  How would you like to get Stock Market returns with little downside fluctuation, put your money to work, let it grow, and just go live your life?  For those of us that are more daring we trade options and stocks. This post is about retirement and just letting things ride.

I. What kind of "Ride" to you want for your investments? Bumpy or Smooth?

Notice the return of the Bond Fund (TGMNX) vs. the stock market (SPY).  What you will notice is that the Bond Fund had a greater return, and none of the downside drops that cause people to panic and sell at the wrong time.

Where are more detailed returns for that same time period.

Bond Fund:

  • Avg Return 6.34%
  • Worst Year + 0.72%
  • Max Drawn Down 3.33%

Stock Market:

  • Avg Return 5.02%
  • Worst Year - 36.8%
  • Max Draw Down -50.8%

 

 
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