Sunday, November 20, 2016 EST

ZeroHedge posted an article by The Global Macro Investor titled "Trump will see a Recession in 2017" The article goes on to discuss that after a two year term President typically the next Presidency sees a recession.

"Just to be 100% clear, the colored vertical lines show the election date. Every President’s name written in white followed a two-term presidency. They each suffer recessions early in their presidency. And those names in red also suffered immediate recessions but after a single-term change of presidency. No recession except that of 1979 (clarified below) is not explained by its proximity to an election."



Monday, September 26, 2016 EST

This is an example of using Stock Miner to find weekly trade setups and buying call or put options based on the stats in Stock Miner. Disclaimer - THIS IS NOT A BUY OR SELL RECOMMENDATION.

I. Stock Miner Weekly Trade Stats for Short Trades: (in this case buying PUTs)

  • Hyatt Hotels came up as  99% Probability (POA) of success with a 3.15% return (on the stock if you shorted).  
  • Historically if you shorted the stock (or bought a PUT) on 9/19 and closed the trade on 9/26 the average return on the SHORT trade was 3.15%.  
  • Using the Bid/Ask Spread (Column B/A) shows that the spread between the bid and the ask on options is fairly tight. This means buying a PUT a decent fill should take place. 

II. Analyzing the Stock Chart:

  • Hyatt has a Descending Triangle forming, and this is supportive of the stock moving down.
  • This is just another step to determine if buying a PUT or shorting the stock is worth it. 
  • The chart below shows it did break the lower trend line on 9/26 and the actual trade date for entry was during the week of 9/19.

III. Typical Returns for Hyatt in September: During the month of September Hyatt is typically down, with an average return of -3%.

Conclusion: Stock Miner Weekly Stats can be used to look for Trade Candidates. Then using Stock Miner results you can then apply other Technical Analysis Techniques to determine if the trade makes sense.  In this example we purchased Puts so that not to have to place break out SHORT Order or being concerned with large losses by shorting the stock. Buying PUTs we know our risk up front.