The chart below shows the average returns for the stock market in January. SPY was used for this chart.
The RED box shows the average return for SPY in January is -1.46%. The Probability of Profit (POP) based on 16 years of data is around 40%. This means in that there is a 40% that the SPY will have positive returns in January.
(This information was posted on our blog late 2015 on a previous post)
Using Stock Miner we can drill down future and look at the week by week average returns.
Show below is red are the last three weeks of January. Stock Miner shows that on average the weeks have negative returns. The first week of January has the best chance of profits but the average returns is still negative.
Our Seasonal Charts and Stock Miner help provide insights into the stock market from a historical / average returns perspective.