Sunday, February 5, 2012 EST


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Sunday, February 5, 2012 EST

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a very important sentiment reading, not only for manufacturing, but also the economy as a whole. Although U.S. manufacturing is not the huge component of total gross domestic product (GDP) that it once was, this industry is still where recessions tend to begin and end. For this reason, the PMI is very closely watched, setting the tone for the upcoming month and other indicator releases.

The chart below from 2003 - January 2012 shows that when the PMI index is above 50 (Expansion) the stock market will trend up. When the PMI falls below 50 (Expansion slowing) the stock market will trend down.  The PMI index can be a very useful way to make some determinations of where the market is headed in the mid to longer term.

Sunday, February 5, 2012 EST
PMI at 54.1%  
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in January, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Primary Metals. The seven industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Textile Mills.

WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING ...
  • "Still seeing raw materials pricing moving down in general, but expect inflation later in the quarter." (Chemical Products)
  • "Year starting a little slow, but customers are positive about increased business in 2012." (Machinery)
  • "Once again, business continues to be strong." (Paper Products)
  • "Pricing remains in check with the demand we are seeing. Supplier deliveries are on time or early." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
  • "The economy seems to be slowly improving." (Fabricated Metal Products)
  • "Business lost to offshore is coming back." (Computer & Electronic Products)
  • "Business remains strong. Order intake is great — more than 20 percent above budget." (Primary Metals)
  • "Indications are that 2012 business environment will improve over 2011." (Transportation Equipment)
  • "Market conditions appear to be improving, with the outlook for 2012 better yet." (Wood Products)
MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE
JANUARY 2012


Index
Series
Index
Jan
Series
Index
Dec
Percentage
Point
Change


Direction
Rate
of
Change

Trend*
(Months)
PMI 54.1 53.1 +1.0 Growing Faster 30
New Orders 57.6 54.8 +2.8 Growing Faster 33
Production 55.7 58.9 -3.2 Growing Slower 32
Employment 54.3 54.8 -0.5 Growing Slower 28
Supplier Deliveries 53.6 51.5 +2.1 Slowing Faster 31
Inventories 49.5 45.5 +4.0 Contracting Slower 4
Customers' Inventories 47.5 42.5 +5.0 Too Low Slower 2
Prices 55.5 47.5 +8.0 Increasing From Decreasing 1
Backlog of Orders 52.5 48.0 +4.5 Growing From Contracting 1
Exports 55.0 53.0 +2.0 Growing Faster 3
Imports 52.5 54.0 -1.5 Growing Slower 2
             
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 32
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 30

*Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.

 

COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY

Commodities Up in Price

Caustic Soda; Gasoline; High Density Polyethylene; Oil; Stainless Steel; Steel (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; and Titanium Dioxide.

Commodities Down in Price

Aluminum (5); Aluminum Products (2); Natural Gas (6); Plastic Products (4); Plastic Resins (6); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (3); Polypropylene Resin; and Steel Products.

Commodities in Short Supply

Hard Drives (2); and Integrated Circuit Boards.

Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.

Full Report - January 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

 
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