Thursday, September 29, 2011 EST
We recently pulled the MTR-TM off of the site to review it after the recent whipsaws. 

The last Market Up signal held even after the market retraced around 8%.  This caused us to take the model off line and review the logic to make sure it was not a bug or data issue.  We found that the rules were intact.  Timing models as a rule (there are free and costly models on the Internet) will have whipsaws in a sideways market.  With the wide range of the recent sideways market it is a confirmation of the difficultly of timing in a sideways chop.  This current sideways market was a great setup for trading support and resistance, but only if you drink decaf coffee. :-) 

We had planned on keeping the MTR-TM offline.  We had many email requests regarding the model and getting back on the site.  In order for us to revise the logic it will a good bit of time.  The model was back tested and forward tested for well over a year, and then it appeared only as a blog for a good while after that.  In order to make any meaningful change to the model it will have to be back tested again to make sure historical trades are good or better.  Then it has to run live for a good bid of time to see how it works real-time on out of sample data.   This can only be accomplished over many months of testing.

Some additional background information:  The MTR-TM is fully automated there are no human fingers of massaging of the data or making a second guess on any of the signals.  Each night a schedule job collects the data and performs all the calculations and sends out email alerts. 

 

The MTR-TM can be found under the Market Analysis menu.

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