Saturday, April 11, 2009 EST
Brian Wesbury posts stock market and economic commentaries with very good and timely insights. I have traded many of the First Trust ETFs over the past year. I really like their product select and how they go about selecting stocks to include in various ETFs.

Recently I watched a Wesbury 101 Video (see below) regarding Mr. Wesbury's insight into the market. Brian Wesbury called the current rally early on and it was about the same time the MTR-TM fired a buy signal.

Recently Brian Wesbury posted an article titled "Easy Money will end the recession." I read the email and replied that "easy money has been around since late 2008 when the DOW went from 10,000 down to 6,500." I was pleasantly surprised when Mr. Wesbury responded to my email with more details. This really shows the personal commitment Mr. Wesbury has for the markets and people that follow his market commentaries.

Here is what he had to say:

You are correct, and we did.  However, a drop in velocity during the period after September 2008 offset any easy money.  Prior to September, the non-housing economy was actually accelerating.  But, once Lehman failed and TARP was proposed and Bush went on TV and panicked everyone the velocity of money collapsed.  That’s when the recession began.  Now, velocity is stabilizing or maybe picking up and easy money will work again.

I suppose you could say that we will have another panic.  But that is a forecast that has nothing to do with easy money today.

All best,
Brian

[youtube:n-qWUgLLVk8]

Friday, April 10, 2009 EST
Jon Markman wrote a very interesting article regarding one of the major problems the global ecnomcy faces: DEBT. While the goverment adds more debt to fix the problem.

These steps have given rise to fantastic speculation opportunities that we will be exploring together for years because, while they are well-intentioned, they are also wildly contradictory and create gigantic entryways for speculation and exploitation.

Credit analyst Brian Reynolds put the challenge of understanding the underlying structure of what's happening best by observing that governments' response amounts to something like a Zen riddle:

  • The global economy's main problem is that there is too much debt . . .
  • Yet governments are trying to add more debt in an effort to get credit flowing again . . .
  • While at the same time attacking bondholders and bankers, the very people they depend upon to create, sell and buy all that new debt.

Continue to the article here

Wednesday, April 8, 2009 EST

Fed pushes back recovery forecast

According to the minutes of the Fed's latest policy meeting, which were released Wednesday, the central bank said that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, is likely to flatten out in the second half of 2009 and expand only slowly next year.

The Fed also said that it now expected the unemployment rate to rise more steeply into early next year before "flattening out at a high level over the rest of the year." The unemployment rate hit 8.5% nationwide in March, up from 8.1% a month earlier.

 
Loading...