Blog Post On: 6/27/2010
The last two signals for the MTR-TM reflected the volatility and indecision in the market. MTR-TM had a down signal on 5/6 only to see the market reverse to the upside and pull back to levels below the market down signal. The market up signal on 6/16 saw two days of Doji candlesticks formations that indicate indecision in the market and soon the market pulled below the market up signal.
The major U.S. indexes, other than the DOW closed higher for the day on Friday 6/25. The volume on Friday exceeded levels seen in months. See the combined volume charts further down in the post.
Decision Economics made an interesting and positive point about China's currency move:
"China currency moves increase “soft landing” odds and modestly ease risks to U.S. trade. DE strategic equity allocation increased slightly to 65% from 60%. Fixed income allocation stays at 30%. Cash and alternatives reduced to 5% from 10%."
Stock Market Timing Model (MTR-TM): Market Up Signal on 6/16/2010
MTR-I: Week over week -3.56%
RSI: RSI turned down below 50 and sits at 44.19
MACD: -20 and trending up. Crossing zero to the upside would be supportive of an up move for the market
Volume: Volume spike on all the major indexes doubling in some cases. This could be a sign off some fears abating and traders getting back in the market late day on Friday. The VIX was off -4%
All of the major indexes are now hovering over a major support level. The indexes also closed with a Doji Candle indicating indecision.
Volume on the major indexes took a wild ride on Friday. Finishing the day double in volume in some cases. Since most of the major indexes closed up this would qualify as an accumulation day. The major indexes also showing a Doji Candle on Friday, indicating indecision was also reflected in the volume.
All of the Advance/Decline Lines ticked up on Friday.
