The MTR-TM issued a Market Down signal today. This followed a bearish divergence pattern for the market that started late last week.

As discussed on this web site the MTR-TM was based partly on the 4% timing model by Ned Davis.

If you chose to take action on the signals of the MTR-TM read the post about the model, risks, and returns. When trading stops should alway be employed to protect capital.  As discussed in the disclaimer on this web site we are not a certified financial advisor. This model is based on a concept we use to trade and post it for educational purposes. It helps to keep us in tune with the market and focused on being on the right side of the trade. If you chose to take action on any signals you do so at your own risk. We encourage everyone to do their homework and make sure your style of investing fits your risk tolerance.

The signal today represents a fully out-of-sample signal. The March 13, 2009 Market Up signal was issued based on back-testing data from January 1998 to Mid 2008, and represents well over a year of tweaking the logic. The March 13, 2009 was out-of-sample since our data in the test sample ended mid 2008.  The model went live after the March 13th signal on this web site. The Market Down signal today, 6/18/2009, is the first market signal that was issued and posted real-time. It is a "moment of truth" signal for the model and we are eager to monitor the results.