Stock Market Timing Model (MTR-TM): Market Down Signal on 5/6/2010

• MTR-I: -8.12%
  RSI: 32.39, below 50 which is bearish. RSI is now reaching extreme oversold levels and a bounce to the upside is likely. News reports that the EU will pledge 1 trillion for Eurozone countries. This may contribute to a strong rally this week. If the rally holds will be another story.
• MACD:  -5.06, below zero is bearish.
• Volume: High volume supported the downside move

All of the major indexes are close touching lower support and may be another factor in a possible move to the upside.

Due to issues with the data provider that we user for AMIBroker (PremiumData.net) there will not be an Advance/Decline Line chart in this post. PremiumData has not reported data for the ADLines for two weeks. Hopefully they will resolve this issue on Monday. 

The Value Line Index broke the up-trend line. The major indexes broke the uptrend as well and are now sitting on support.

Stock Market Timing Model (MTR-TM): Market Up Signal on 2/17/2010

• MTR-I: -3.15 Week over Week. A market down signal forecast for Tuesday may appear after the close on Monday.
• RSI: Currently at 53.92, below 50 is negative. If we get a bounce off of 50 there may be some additional upside.
• MACD: Extreme level, below 0 is negative
• Volume: Friday volume does not qualify as a distribution day, but the volume was still high.

The major indexes all broke the uptrend with the NYSE now sitting on support. The market appears to be weighing some "options" as to more downside movement. If RSI breaks below 50 that could indicate a down trend is underway.

The Advance/Decline Lines tell another story (turning down) that shows the support for the uptrend is starting to slow. Typically the ADLines lead then the indexes follow. Even with the strength in the market this is still red flag and investors need to be aware of this relationship.

Stock Market Timing Model (MTR-TM): Market Up Signal on 2/17/2010

• MTR-I: Turn back up following the trend
• RSI: Turned back up reaching extreme levels BUT did not reach a new high. Below 50 is negative
• MACD: Extreme level, below 0 is negative
• Volume: Friday light in comparison with the trend

NYSE is starting to flatten out but Mid Caps and Tech still reaching new highs.

The Advance/Decline Lines turned down, with most of the indexes up. This can be a negative for the up trend.